Australian Grain Export Trends 2025
Published April 6, 2025
A structured overview of Australia’s grain export outlook, backed by the latest market data, climate insights, and trade dynamics across wheat, barley, and pulses.
Key Highlights
- Continued strong demand from China and emerging ASEAN markets
- Wheat and barley remain dominant exports; pulses growing in India
- Favourable climate outlook suggests stable to strong production
- Trade relations with China improved, supporting sustained exports
Current Export Landscape
Grain exports are vital to Australia’s agri-sector, with top markets including China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Recent easing of trade tensions has led to a rebound in wheat and barley exports to China.
What’s Driving Export Trends in 2025?
1. Demand from China
China’s import forecast for wheat (MY2025/26) is slightly below previous highs but still strong. Australia is expected to remain China’s top wheat supplier.
2. ASEAN & India Growth
ASEAN demand now makes up 23% of AFF exports. India’s temporary tariff removal on chickpeas (until March 2025) boosts pulse export potential.
3. Climate Outlook
Neutral ENSO and IOD phases suggest average rainfall. Winter crop production is forecast at 59.8Mt—27% above the 10-year average.
4. Trade Policy
Tariff removals (e.g. barley to China) and revived diplomatic ties improve trade certainty. However, potential global instability (e.g. U.S. elections) may present risk.
5. Global Competition
Russia’s 10Mt reduction in wheat quotas (Feb–June 2025) may shift demand to Australia, offering competitive advantage.
Grain Type Outlook
Wheat
Expected to lead exports (~20Mt). Key destinations: China, Southeast Asia. AEGIC notes that 65–75% of production is exported globally.
Barley
Export recovery to China is underway after the 2023 tariff removal. Malting-grade barley is especially in demand.
Pulses (Chickpeas & Lentils)
Pulse exports are growing—particularly to India thanks to suspended tariffs. Rural Bank projects chickpea exports rising 65% to $855 million AUD.
2025 Export Forecast Summary
| Grain Type | Forecast Volume (Mt) | Major Markets | Key Influencing Factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | ~20 | China, ASEAN | Climate, global competition, strong demand |
| Barley | ~7 | China, Japan | Resumed trade, malting demand |
| Pulses | TBD | India, ASEAN | Tariffs, dietary trends |
*Volumes are indicative estimates based on current trends and trade forecasts.
Conclusion
Australia’s grain sector enters 2025 with cautious optimism. Strengthened trade ties, solid production forecasts, and market diversification all point toward sustained export success. However, stakeholders should stay alert to climate variability and geopolitical shifts that may shape the year ahead.